Daredevil Risk Taking and Tooth Fairies

Throughout our political and business histories, there have been daredevil risk takers. You may believe that they have a devil-may-care attitude to life, and that they had no concern and care for their own lives and safety of their followers. Maybe you also believe there are Tooth Fairies in your bedroom too.

I'll demonstrate only 3 examples.

Hernán Cortés or Pizarro

Hernán Cortés or Pizarro

The myth is : Cortez and his troops were landing at an enemy territory where they were greatly outnumbered and he ordered his troops to burn the ships.

The truth: he merely scuttled them. Even then, in order to prevent mutiny. And he had taken a special care of the ship building crew.

Bayinnaung Kyawhtin Nawrahta

In Myanmar history, Bayint Naung is well known for his over-confident promise to his King. The King had asked him to wait for his arrival before they began a decisive battle. Bayint Naung asked the messengers to tell the King that they had already won the battle. When his staff questioned his over-confident promise,  Bayint Naung replied that any king cannot blame the troops that have already perished! And before they crossed a river, he asked his troops to burn their boats and rafts, a la Cortez / Pizzaro style.

Was he making a point to the mercenaries under his command to fight to win?

He couldn't swim back to this side of the river, of course. But did he know palces where he and his troops re-locate on the other side, like Douglas MacArthur and the Japanese in the Philippines?

Please check out logistic plans in his Thailand campaigns. I just cannot believe Bayint Naung would act cool without some insurance.

Sir Richard Branson

Sir Richard Branson is the founder and head of the Virgin Group of more than 400 companies. He himself has explained on many occasions that before he placed any bet, he ensured that

1. They are not betting the farm. He even made sure that his employers would not suffer when their bet miscarried.
2. They decreased their downside.
3. They increased their upside.

Is that daredevil risk-taking?

Risk Management, Buddhist Style

Buddha has talked a good deal about risk-taking and risk management. Here are just a few prominent stories from my reading, where the would-be Buddha emphasizes on the worst-case scenarios and the "both-and" strategies.

Volume 1. Story Number 1 : Caravan Leader

The leader was persuaded by the ogres to throw away his water so that they would die of thirst in a  desert and the ogres could devour them.

"...But he doesn't know my cleverness and ready wit." Then he shouted to the goblin, "Begone! We're men of business, and do not throw away what water we have got, before we see where more is to come from. ... "
 

Volume 1. Story Number 38 : The Crab Cuts the Crane

Here the crane promised the crab to carry him from his drying lake to a faraway lake.

Thought the crab to himself, "... if he would really put me in, that would be capital. If he does not,--why, I'll nip his head off and kill him."
 

Volume 4. Story Number 466 : The Carpenters and the Iisland Flood

A group of carpenters angered the island gods by thier unruly behaviours. The gods decided to get rid of them in a flood. An eveil god told them not to worry and keep on having fun as before. A good-natured god warned them of the coming flood.

There were two groups among the carpenters. The leader of the foolish, unruly carpenters told his followers to trust the eveil-minded god. The leader of the well-behaved carpenters spoke thus:

"Come now, let us follow the words of both the deities. Let us build a ship, and then if the words of the first be true, into that ship we will climb and depart; but if the words of the other be true, we will put the ship out of the way, and dwell here."
 

Reference

The Jataka, Volume I, tr. by Robert Chalmers, [1895], at sacred-texts.com
THE JATAKA OR STORIES OF THE BUDDHA'S FORMER BIRTHS.

TRANSLATED FROM THE PALI BY VARIOUS HANDS
UNDER THE EDITORSHIP OF PROFESSOR E. B. COWELL.

Psychology of Mis-Judgement

Charlie Munger,Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Corporation, has discussed how our mind plays tricks on our decision-making in his book "Poor Charlie's Almanac." That chapter is also available on line at Psychology of Mis-Judgement.

Uncertainty, Chaos, Complex confusing circumstances, Friction and fog of war, turbulence, unpredictability, and similar topics kept me spell-bound during past few months. And thus, when I have time, I would like to share my understandings of famous books like Judgement Under Uncertainty by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and many such books.

Munger turned out to be sort of a kindred spirit to me. Even before I read his "Almanac," I read such books in minutes, zeroing in on what Munger calls "really big ideas." You must have noticed that here in my posts, I share such juicy, hand-picked "really big ideas."

Munger lists 25 factors that can skew our judgement and then urges the readers or future scholars to tidy up his list. Here is my attempt to do so:

1. Greed, Liking, Envy/jealousy, Social Proof, Over-Respect, Over Optimism, Curiosity(Seeking Fun, Variety, Adventure, Thrill etc)
   
2. Fear, Dislike, 
     Avoiding pain, doubt, inconsistency, discomfort etc
     Seeking confirmation, seeking meaning
     Loss aversion
     Over-reaction to deprival
   
3. Association, Pavlovian conditioned reflexes
     Anchoring
     Oversight of convergence of many factors 
     Availability-Misweighing
     Pride, arrogance, over-confidence
     Excessive self-regard 
   
4. Stress
   
5. ?
   

People familiar with Buddhist literature will notice that these are what Buddha calls defilements or hindrances as explained by Venerable Nyanaponika, and by Wiki teams.

Kamachanda(Sensual desire, lust, craving, grasping)

Here, you want something very badly. This is what can happen:

1. You lose sight of other relevant factors. e.g. In a Taoist tale, a thief grabbed and ran away with a gold piece in a crowded marketplace because he "saw only the gold", not other humans who would catch him.
2. Numerous Chines kings and princes who believed that soldiers from the enemy army were deserting in droves simply because they desired such an outcome whereas in truth, those soldiers just went into hiding to lay ambush.

Vyapada (Ill-will, hatred, anger, fear)

Here, you hate someting so much that you refuse to believe it.
e.g. Hitler would not accept that Soviet factories were producing more tanks etc than his own factories.

Thina-middha (Sloth and torpor)

Here. you are not awake.

Uddhacca-kukkucca (Restlessness,worry, agitation)

This is what we today call stress and anxiety.

Vicikiccha (Doubts or hesitation)

This is plain confusion, contradiction, paradoxes, and lack of faith.